Security developments indicate that the United States is increasingly redirecting its counter-terrorism operations from the Middle East to Africa, with Nigeria emerging as a critical strategic ally in the expanding offensive against ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates operating across the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin.
For years, the epicentre of global terrorism was concentrated in Iraq and Syria, but intelligence assessments now point to a dramatic geographic shift.
ISIS leadership structures are believed to have migrated into the Lake Chad region, while Al-Qaeda-linked groups have entrenched themselves across the Sahel, turning parts of West and Central Africa into one of the world’s most volatile terror corridors.
Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria have borne the brunt of the insurgents’ migration, but worsening political instability in the region, evidenced by military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger Republic, has deeply fractured regional cooperation and weakened coordinated responses to terrorism.
Now, observers believe that Washington appears determined to prevent the region from slipping further into extremist control.
The U.S. believes that ungoverned spaces in Africa allow groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda to build bases for external operations targeting America.
Also, beyond security, the U.S. seeks to ensure access to critical resources, such as high-quality crude oil from the Gulf of Guinea and minerals in nearby regions, which serve as alternatives to Middle Eastern or Chinese-dominated supply chains, while equally trying to suppress Chinese and Russian interests in the region.
Security sources said the region is witnessing an unprecedented escalation of American military engagement, including sustained air operations targeting ISIS strongholds around Lake Chad.
The renewed offensive mirrors earlier American tactics used in the Middle East.
For instance, in 2019, the United States deployed a B-52 bomber to obliterate an ISIS logistics and training base hidden on an island in Iraq’s Tigris River, dropping over 36,000 kilograms of bombs and wiping the enclave off the map.
Similar counter-terrorism intensity is unfolding in Africa following the recent joint U.S.-Nigeria military operations, which struck terrorist enclaves in Sokoto during the 2025 Christmas period and later in Metele, Borno State, where airstrikes allegedly eliminated ISIS global deputy leader, Al-Minuk.
The operations mark a major turning point in Abuja’s security partnership with Washington.
Nigeria, once viewed in Washington with deep suspicion over allegations of human rights abuses and governance concerns, has gradually rebuilt diplomatic trust through intelligence sharing, strategic military cooperation and counter-terrorism coordination.
Military sources said troops recorded fresh gains against Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters in the North-East and the Lake Chad Islands, with several insurgent commanders neutralised in recent offensives.
For Nigeria, the expanding U.S. military footprint, while appearing on the surface to appease the Trump administration’s Christian evangelical base through claims that American involvement is aimed at preventing Christian persecution, also serves a broader strategic purpose. It provides Washington with a critical entry point for monitoring the evolving and adaptive insurgency landscape across the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, which directly threatens U.S. interests in the region and, potentially, the homeland itself.
Notwithstanding the military victories, Nigeria’s internal security crisis has continued to deepen.
Across the country, kidnappings for ransom have continued to surge alarmingly.
Schools, markets, worship centres and highways are increasingly under siege, while communal clashes, separatist agitation, banditry, herder-farmer conflicts and economic sabotage continue to destabilise several regions.
According to a Corporate Security & Risk Management Professional/Regional Security Adviser, Austen Pabor, terrorism and extremism have gone side-by-side with the same outcomes over the years, resulting in armed conflicts and extensive wreckage across the globe, with the United States playing the role it plays to restore stability in these affected countries.
“This shift in global counter-terrorism attention toward Africa reflects how threats can evolve and where the threat is evolving. For Nigeria, this presents an opportunity to strengthen intelligence sharing, regional security cooperation, and counter-terrorism capabilities, provided the country views it through this lens and takes advantage of the potential relationships.
“However, military action alone will not secure lasting stability in Nigeria. The real solution lies in combining targeted security operations with stronger border management, effective governance, disruption of terrorist financing, and the restoration of state authority in underserved communities,” he suggested, adding that terrorist groups thrive where governance is weak.
Pabor stated that sustainable security must focus on both defeating the threat and eliminating the conditions that allow it to regenerate.
“I am hopeful that if the Nigerian government explores the pros of this possibility, where intelligence, surveillance, border strengthening, etc., are shared with the common goal of combating terrorism, it will certainly be a conversation on the front burner,” he said.
Also, security expert, Matthew Ibadin, agreed with the assessment that most of the insecurity challenges are coming from the Sahel region.
This, he attributed to porous borders. According to him, the Nigerian border in the Sahel is porous, making it easy for the terrorists to migrate into the country.
He argued that even if all the country’s military might were deployed to the Sahel, they would not be able to contain the terrorists pouring into the country as a result of porous borders.
“It is time for the Nigerian government to fortify our borders and dismantle the current security architecture in the country.
“This is because we are operating under a single-digit security architecture, where the police are on the exclusive list. The federal government owns the police, so we have a centralised police force. It means that the federal government owns the army, navy, air and the police,” he pointed out.
He explained that it would be difficult to fix the security challenges without devolving power. According to him, that is the only way out of the quagmire.
Ibadin said: “We should allow state police by taking policing from the exclusive list to the concurrent list. Let state governments be able to formulate and undertake policing tasks in their states, so we can hold state governors accountable when there are issues in their states.
Arguing that the police can combat insecurity, Ibadin stressed that the police, if properly empowered, trained, and equipped, could do the job of fighting pervasive insecurity effectively.
Meanwhile, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has reportedly announced the closure of its ‘hijrah’ migration routes for foreign fighters, acknowledging that traditional entry corridors into Nigeria have become too dangerous due to sustained military operations by United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) and Nigerian forces.
According to an intelligence report from security analysts covering the Lake Chad region, the terrorist group reportedly acknowledged that the routes, which have historically served as vital channels for the movement of fighters, weapons, supplies, and external support into insurgent-controlled territories, are now considered inaccessible.
Security sources described this development as evidence of increasing pressure on the group’s logistics infrastructure. The restriction on those corridors, they said, could complicate the terrorist organisation’s recruitment, logistics, and operational planning.
The closure of migration routes is believed to be the result of the intelligence-led strikes targeting ISWAP command structures and supply chains across Borno State and the wider Lake Chad region. Experts said this campaign should be sustained.
For a security analyst and digital communications expert, Deji Adesogan, the increasing shift of U.S. counter-terrorism efforts from the Middle East to Africa positions Nigeria as a key strategic partner in the fight against ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin.
This development, he said, could enhance Nigeria’s security through improved intelligence sharing, military cooperation, and access to advanced technology, helping to combat Boko Haram, ISWAP, and other extremist groups.
“Improved security could also boost economic development by attracting investment, restoring agricultural activities, and promoting regional stability. However, Nigeria may also face increased terrorist threats as extremist groups adapt to growing pressure.
“To maximise the benefits, Nigeria must complement military operations with investments in technology, innovation, education, job creation, and good governance to address the root causes of extremism and build long-term national stability,” he said.
A security expert, Abubakar Sadeeq, said, “First, before development, there must be peace. In any situation where crises take the lead, development will be very, very scarce, because how do you even develop when there is no peace?”
Sadeeq blamed insecurity in Nigeria and in the Sahel on the former colonial master. He accused them of using insecurity to exploit the resources of Africa.
“You should know that without Africa’s resources, places like France cannot survive, places like Europe cannot survive. So, there must be crises. Those are factors that are creating this insecurity.
“And Libya is just a next-door neighbour where there was a crisis. And after the crisis, there was no proper resolution to cover the movement of arms. Those arms were deployed into some parts of Africa, here, Nigeria, to be precise.
“So, those are the major factors. And until we have those factors curtailed by having a serious strategy, bringing all security experts together to draft a strategy, of course, there will not be peace.
