The answer could shape the presidential contest against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who have built their appeal on widespread frustration over economic hardship and insecurity.
The main challengers argue the APC's nearly 12 years in power have left Africa's most populous country poorer, more indebted and no safer than when the party swept into office in 2015, then under the leadership of Muhammadu Buhari.
NEARLY 80% SAY NIGERIA HEADING IN WRONG DIRECTION
For Tinubu, nicknamed "T-Pain" by many Nigerians grappling with soaring living costs, the election will test whether voters are willing to endure short-term pain for the promise of longer-term gains.
So far, many appear unconvinced.
"The APC's tenure from 2015 to 2026 makes for unhappy reading and Tinubu's reforms have particularly brought severe pain," Cheta Nwanze, a partner at Nigeria-based risk advisory SBM Intelligence, said.
"Our voter tracker shows nearly 80% of Nigerians say the country is headed in the wrong direction with 45% citing economic hardship and insecurity as their top concern."
Few Nigerian presidents have moved as quickly on economic policy as Tinubu. He scrapped a costly decades-old fuel subsidy and twice devalued the naira.
The reforms delivered changes long sought by investors and international lenders, but also unleashed a shock across households, fuelling protests and what many Nigerians describe as the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.
Tinubu has defended the measures as necessary to unwind years of state intervention. His government cites higher revenues and stronger investor interest as signs the reforms are working.
"Since 2023, our reforms have restored stability and credibility to economic management," he said during a recent broadcast.
Many voters, however, judge the economy less by macroeconomic gains than by the cost of putting food on the table.
'I USED TO SELL SIX GOATS A DAY'
At Abuja's Garki market, butcher Abdullahi Sani said soaring costs had crushed demand.
"Five years ago, I used to sell six goats a day. Now I struggle to sell two, sometimes just one," he told Reuters. "It is difficult to make a profit and feed my family."
The gap between improving economic indicators and worsening household finances is likely to define the campaign.
Tinubu's challenge is compounded by the risk that voters will not only judge him on his own record. They will also be looking back at his predecessor's legacy.
He inherited an economy moulded by Buhari, whom he helped propel to power. Buhari's interventionist agenda included import curbs, currency controls, border closures and a fuel subsidy that cost the government $10 billion in 2022 alone.
"The inequality gap between the haves and those that do not have is increasing," Sulaimon Arigbadu, executive secretary of HEDA Resource Centre, said.
Living standards have also deteriorated. GDP per capita fell 53% to $1,224 currently from $2,586 in 2015, World Bank data show, highlighting a decade-long erosion of household prosperity.
The legacy is evident in Nigeria's swelling debt burden which rose more than 12-fold to 159.35 trillion naira ($117.34 billion) by March 2026 from 12.6 trillion naira at end-2015, official data shows.
Debt-service costs are forecast at $11.6 billion this year, almost half of projected revenue and more than twice the 2025 bill of $5.15 billion.
If the economy is Tinubu's biggest hurdle, security could prove his most damaging liability.
The government says military operations have curbed attacks, made roads safer and allowed more farmers to return to their fields.
ELECTION ABOUT SURVIVAL, SECURITY AND FOOD
Yet violence remains widespread. Amnesty International says at least 10,217 people have been killed by armed groups and around 15 mass abductions of schoolchildren have been recorded since Tinubu took office.
Critics say threats have evolved rather than receded, with banditry widespread in the northwest, separatist unrest in the southeast and kidnappings for ransom now pervasive.
"For ordinary Nigerians, this election is fundamentally about survival, security ... whether families can afford food, whether farmers can safely return to their farms," Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, head of CISLAC/Transparency International Nigeria, said.
The APC swept to power more than a decade ago pledging to defeat Islamist insurgents, curb corruption, and revive an economy hit by low oil prices. Instead, Nigeria slipped into its first recession in 25 years under Buhari, while inflation hit record highs above 33% and growth remained sluggish.
Tinubu enters the election campaign weighed down by his record and his party's, with the opposition arguing that after more than a decade in power, only results now matter.
For many voters, the election may hinge on whether life is safer and more affordable now than when the APC first promised change in 2015.
"The data tells us the odds are against Tinubu and the only way back is low voter turnout on election day," Nwanze said. "However, the opposition remains disunited, which historically have favoured the incumbent."
