Nigeria’s temporary fuel price relief measure has reignited debate over petrol subsidies, following their removal in 2023. While the government explores targeted support for vulnerable households, the IMF warns against reinstating broad subsidies, citing the potential risks to the economy.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Video - Nigeria’s 30-day fuel discount reignites subsidy debate
Nigeria’s temporary fuel price relief measure has reignited debate over petrol subsidies, following their removal in 2023. While the government explores targeted support for vulnerable households, the IMF warns against reinstating broad subsidies, citing the potential risks to the economy.
Nigerian troops kill 103 suspected terrorists, destroy logistics hubs
The military has sustained precision air strikes against Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) terrorists in the North-east, killing 103 fighters and destroying several logistics hubs and storage facilities between 10 and 18 October.
The Acting Military Information Officer, Headquarters Joint Task Force (North-East), Operation Hadin Kai (OPHK), Mohammed Goni, disclosed this in a statement on Monday in Maiduguri.
Mr Goni said the operations involved coordinated air assets from Nigerian Army Aviation, the Nigerian Army Remotely Piloted Aircraft Regiment (NARPARS) and the Air Component.
He said the campaign comprised seven strikes targeting terrorist locations around Gudumbali in Guzamala Local Government Area (LGA), Badu and Mairari in Monguno LGA, Duste Uku in Gombi LGA of Adamawa, and the Arina Woje area of Monguno LGA, Borno.
According to him, a major success was recorded on Sunday when the air component conducted a precision strike against the alternate residence of Abu Saleem, the ISWAP Wali of South Lake Chad, following intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance activities.
He said subsequent human intelligence confirmed the killing of Jindullah, a prominent ISWAP fighter reportedly serving as Abu Saleem’s chief security guard, and Abul Kissa, a member of the group’s Shura Council.
Mr Goni added that other prominent fighters were also killed during the strike.
He said the targeted structure was completely destroyed alongside key logistics assets, including nine boat engines and several motorcycles stored within the premises.
He also said that the destruction of the facility had further undermined the group’s ability to use the location as a safe haven and logistics base within the forested area.
Mr Goni added that an earlier operation on 13 October involved a Guardian air asset tracking a group of 16 terrorists from the Mairari axis to a gathering of more than 100 fighters accompanied by several motorcycles.
He said the gathering was located approximately 23 kilometres east of Badu and 19 kilometres west of Monguno.
According to him, a subsequent precision strike on the gathering resulted in the assessed killing of about 30 terrorists, although the extent of damage to the motorcycles remained unconfirmed.
He said other strikes during the period targeted terrorist elements and facilities around Gudumbali, Badu, Mairari and Duste Uku.
MrGoni said the operations reflected sustained military pressure on terrorist concentrations, leadership structures and logistics networks across the theatre.
He added that the coordinated use of air assets and ground forces remained central to efforts to degrade terrorist capabilities, disrupt command structures and deny insurgents freedom of action.
The military, he said, remained committed to sustaining operational momentum and advancing efforts to restore lasting peace and security across the North-East.
The Acting Military Information Officer, Headquarters Joint Task Force (North-East), Operation Hadin Kai (OPHK), Mohammed Goni, disclosed this in a statement on Monday in Maiduguri.
Mr Goni said the operations involved coordinated air assets from Nigerian Army Aviation, the Nigerian Army Remotely Piloted Aircraft Regiment (NARPARS) and the Air Component.
He said the campaign comprised seven strikes targeting terrorist locations around Gudumbali in Guzamala Local Government Area (LGA), Badu and Mairari in Monguno LGA, Duste Uku in Gombi LGA of Adamawa, and the Arina Woje area of Monguno LGA, Borno.
According to him, a major success was recorded on Sunday when the air component conducted a precision strike against the alternate residence of Abu Saleem, the ISWAP Wali of South Lake Chad, following intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance activities.
He said subsequent human intelligence confirmed the killing of Jindullah, a prominent ISWAP fighter reportedly serving as Abu Saleem’s chief security guard, and Abul Kissa, a member of the group’s Shura Council.
Mr Goni added that other prominent fighters were also killed during the strike.
He said the targeted structure was completely destroyed alongside key logistics assets, including nine boat engines and several motorcycles stored within the premises.
He also said that the destruction of the facility had further undermined the group’s ability to use the location as a safe haven and logistics base within the forested area.
Mr Goni added that an earlier operation on 13 October involved a Guardian air asset tracking a group of 16 terrorists from the Mairari axis to a gathering of more than 100 fighters accompanied by several motorcycles.
He said the gathering was located approximately 23 kilometres east of Badu and 19 kilometres west of Monguno.
According to him, a subsequent precision strike on the gathering resulted in the assessed killing of about 30 terrorists, although the extent of damage to the motorcycles remained unconfirmed.
He said other strikes during the period targeted terrorist elements and facilities around Gudumbali, Badu, Mairari and Duste Uku.
MrGoni said the operations reflected sustained military pressure on terrorist concentrations, leadership structures and logistics networks across the theatre.
He added that the coordinated use of air assets and ground forces remained central to efforts to degrade terrorist capabilities, disrupt command structures and deny insurgents freedom of action.
The military, he said, remained committed to sustaining operational momentum and advancing efforts to restore lasting peace and security across the North-East.
U.S. Signs a Mining Agreement with Nigeria
Nigeria and the United States signed an agreement on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on September 24 to expand American investment in Nigeria’s $700 billion mining sector. The $700 billion represents an estimate of Nigeria’s mineral resources and not a $700-billion investment commitment by the United States. Public information on the framework agreement is limited, with details on specific projects, financing commitments, mineral volumes, and pricing yet to be disclosed.
The Trump administration is looking to build an independent supply chain for critical minerals and rare earth metals needed for the high-tech industry, clean energy systems, and defense applications. Partnering with the United States is expected to help Nigeria sell its minerals globally. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and rich in energy and mineral resources. The agreement, signed with Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, covers geological data and exploration, mineral development and processing, infrastructure, and technical capacity.
In June, the Nigerian government announced the discovery of platinum metals, gold, nickel, copper, lithium, and rare earth elements in Kaduna State, in the country’s northwestern region. The area contains high-grade deposits of strategic minerals needed for clean energy technology and advanced manufacturing. Lithium and other battery materials are in demand as essential components in batteries that power electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and renewable energy infrastructure. A private company, Steron Mining, discovered the deposit, and the Nigerian Geological Survey Agency verified it, which could boost the nation’s position in the global race for critical rare earth minerals. Nigeria also has significant deposits of tin and columbite-tantalite, bauxite, and manganese, as well as gold, iron ore, lead-zinc, and phosphate.
According to Steron Mining, its Abuja-area operation holds approximately 3.3 million metric tons of lithium reserves. Company geologists say the broader project hosts an estimated 94.8 million metric tons of mineral resources, including lithium-bearing ore and granitic rock.
Nigeria aims not only to be a source of raw materials but also to increase local processing, skills development, job creation, and Nigerian businesses’ participation in the critical minerals value chain. Onshoring mineral refining could create local jobs, as Nigeria has largely exported ore. The countries expect to turn the framework agreement into projects, investments, and results in the coming months. These goals come as Nigeria’s mining sector remains hindered by safety concerns and environmental challenges.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, faces significant structural challenges in diversifying its economy away from oil and strengthening its mineral industries. Industry cautions that significant hurdles remain before discoveries can translate into large-scale production. Infrastructure constraints, power shortages, artisanal mining, and regulatory challenges continue to weigh on Nigeria’s mining development.
Nigeria’s lithium potential, however, has attracted growing international interest. Nigeria reestablished a strategic partnership with China in 2024 and signed agreements on trade, economic cooperation, technology, and investment. Chinese companies, including Jiuling Lithium and Canmax Technologies, have committed more than $1.3 billion toward processing facilities in the country, including Kaduna State, and foreign investors continue to acquire exploration and mining licenses in several states.
The Trump administration is looking to build an independent supply chain for critical minerals and rare earth metals needed for the high-tech industry, clean energy systems, and defense applications. Partnering with the United States is expected to help Nigeria sell its minerals globally. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and rich in energy and mineral resources. The agreement, signed with Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, covers geological data and exploration, mineral development and processing, infrastructure, and technical capacity.
In June, the Nigerian government announced the discovery of platinum metals, gold, nickel, copper, lithium, and rare earth elements in Kaduna State, in the country’s northwestern region. The area contains high-grade deposits of strategic minerals needed for clean energy technology and advanced manufacturing. Lithium and other battery materials are in demand as essential components in batteries that power electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and renewable energy infrastructure. A private company, Steron Mining, discovered the deposit, and the Nigerian Geological Survey Agency verified it, which could boost the nation’s position in the global race for critical rare earth minerals. Nigeria also has significant deposits of tin and columbite-tantalite, bauxite, and manganese, as well as gold, iron ore, lead-zinc, and phosphate.
According to Steron Mining, its Abuja-area operation holds approximately 3.3 million metric tons of lithium reserves. Company geologists say the broader project hosts an estimated 94.8 million metric tons of mineral resources, including lithium-bearing ore and granitic rock.
Nigeria aims not only to be a source of raw materials but also to increase local processing, skills development, job creation, and Nigerian businesses’ participation in the critical minerals value chain. Onshoring mineral refining could create local jobs, as Nigeria has largely exported ore. The countries expect to turn the framework agreement into projects, investments, and results in the coming months. These goals come as Nigeria’s mining sector remains hindered by safety concerns and environmental challenges.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, faces significant structural challenges in diversifying its economy away from oil and strengthening its mineral industries. Industry cautions that significant hurdles remain before discoveries can translate into large-scale production. Infrastructure constraints, power shortages, artisanal mining, and regulatory challenges continue to weigh on Nigeria’s mining development.
Nigeria’s lithium potential, however, has attracted growing international interest. Nigeria reestablished a strategic partnership with China in 2024 and signed agreements on trade, economic cooperation, technology, and investment. Chinese companies, including Jiuling Lithium and Canmax Technologies, have committed more than $1.3 billion toward processing facilities in the country, including Kaduna State, and foreign investors continue to acquire exploration and mining licenses in several states.
Conclusion
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has recently found $700 billion worth of mineral resources, including platinum metals, gold, nickel, copper, lithium, and rare earth elements in Kaduna State, in the northwestern region of the country, needed for the high-tech industry, clean energy systems, and defense applications. The United States has signed a framework agreement with Nigeria to expand American investment in Nigeria’s mining industry toward building an independent supply chain for critical minerals and rare earth metals. The agreement seeks to pair U.S. expertise with Nigerian resources to benefit both nations. Nigeria wants not only to supply raw materials but also to increase local processing, develop skills, create jobs, and increase Nigerian businesses’ participation in the critical minerals value chain. Significant hurdles, including Infrastructure constraints, power shortages, artisanal mining activity, and regulatory issues, challenge that development.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has recently found $700 billion worth of mineral resources, including platinum metals, gold, nickel, copper, lithium, and rare earth elements in Kaduna State, in the northwestern region of the country, needed for the high-tech industry, clean energy systems, and defense applications. The United States has signed a framework agreement with Nigeria to expand American investment in Nigeria’s mining industry toward building an independent supply chain for critical minerals and rare earth metals. The agreement seeks to pair U.S. expertise with Nigerian resources to benefit both nations. Nigeria wants not only to supply raw materials but also to increase local processing, develop skills, create jobs, and increase Nigerian businesses’ participation in the critical minerals value chain. Significant hurdles, including Infrastructure constraints, power shortages, artisanal mining activity, and regulatory issues, challenge that development.
Monday, October 19, 2026
Fuel subsidy debate takes center stage ahead of Nigerian election
The leading contenders in Nigeria’s presidential election face a defining question: should the fuel subsidy be restored to ease the burden of rising energy costs?
President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking a second term in January, has repeatedly defended his decision to scrap a years-long subsidy program in 2023 to avoid wasteful spending and invest in infrastructure development. But his government’s introduction of a short-term petrol price discount this month to counter rising costs driven by the Iran war has reignited the debate as to whether a subsidy would make a more lasting return.
Tinubu’s main rivals say they plan to restore some form of consumer support if elected and have accused the president of panicking in the face of pressure to account for his decision, with polls opening in less than 100 days. SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based advisory firm, found in a survey published in September that more than two-thirds of voters want the government to reinstate a fuel subsidy of some kind. Insecurity, which has worsened around the country, is also set to figure as a major point of contention.
The revived subsidy debate is shaping just about every conversation concerning the coming vote in Africa’s biggest democracy. Tinubu and his 17 challengers are hitting the campaign trail to sway voters whose collective purchasing power has weakened sharply in the last three years, in large part due to the five-fold rise in fuel prices in that period which has driven inflation and spawned a cost-of-living crisis. Its resurgence reflects Nigeria’s history as the continent’s top oil producer and exporter that has consistently failed to convert its energy riches into broad-based prosperity.
For years, the vast majority of the crude oil produced in the country was exported because none of the government’s domestic refineries were fully functional. Imported refined products were then subsidized by payments from the state-oil company NNPC, enabling a multibillion-dollar largesse that grew into an increasingly opaque and corrupt scheme, according to government fact-finders and international observers. It was also costly: The program’s $10 billion in 2022 exceeded the combined budget for healthcare and education.
Tinubu has largely not faced widespread protests or strong political opposition since ending the subsidy. He has told Nigerians that his policy approach is shifting from offering “emergency treatment” — ostensibly to fix the faulty foundations of the economy he inherited — to enabling shared prosperity.
But in Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, he faces familiar challengers who are eager to make the coming election a referendum on the impact of energy costs. “Bola made life expensive. I will work to make life affordable again,” Atiku said in a campaign video last week. Obi, the other heavyweight in the race, pledged to judge his leadership by metrics that would show Nigerians “eating better, living better, and escaping poverty.”
The sharp rise in energy costs that followed Tinubu’s subsidy removal led several businesses to shutter or reconsider operations in Nigeria. But while many questioned the absence of safety net measures to cushion the impact of Tinubu’s so-called shock therapy, the International Monetary Fund praised the subsidy removal, as did several economists. An IMF official last week cautioned Nigeria to avoid the temptation of reinstating a subsidy for political reasons.
The Dangote refinery in Lagos, which started supplying fuel in Nigeria two years ago, provides about 70% of Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs. But the country still imports refined fuels. Both Dangote — which buys more than a third of its crude from international suppliers — and fuel importers are vulnerable to global oil price shocks.
The potential for further escalation in the Iran war, underscored by recent Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, raises the question of how long Nigeria is prepared to extend the price cap that is initially planned to be in place for 30-days. “I think it’s highly likely that this gets extended, at least through the elections into Q1,” said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at SBM.
BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Group, expects the price cap to amount to up to 0.4% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product by the second quarter of next year.
Nigeria’s subsidy debates are divisive because the program — once seen by many Nigerians as the only benefit they got from the state — has swallowed historically mammoth sums and is inextricably associated with corruption and state capture by a cabal of favored oil traders.
Many analysts say Nigeria’s fuel subsidy burdened public finances and encouraged adverse behaviors like fuel smuggling. Together with changes that allowed the naira currency to float freely by market forces, Tinubu’s subsidy removal helped to improve Nigeria’s fiscal stability and strengthen reserves.
But trialling a short-term fuel price cap points to a government reckoning with the pain it has inflicted. “The removal of the fuel subsidy has been economically necessary, but socially painful,” Jervin Nadioo, an analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told me. He believes Tinubu is “well positioned to secure re-election” but growing public frustration over living costs suggests that an improved economic picture has not translated into sufficient relief for households.
Stop-gaps and sweeteners may sway some voters towards Tinubu in January. But it is more likely that the difficulties of the last three years have already hardened views about the candidates.
The battle for political advantage ahead of elections should not obscure a reasonable expectation that governments can intervene to soften the pain of citizens, said Vahyala Kwaga, country head for Nigeria at policy research group BudgIT.
“Anything that can alleviate the hardship that the masses suffered from the day it was announced that the subsidy is gone is certainly welcome,” Kwaga said. Ultimately, though, his concern is with transparency and accountability: “Who is going to be held responsible if the subsidy doesn’t work?”
By Alexander Onukwue, SEMAFOR
President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking a second term in January, has repeatedly defended his decision to scrap a years-long subsidy program in 2023 to avoid wasteful spending and invest in infrastructure development. But his government’s introduction of a short-term petrol price discount this month to counter rising costs driven by the Iran war has reignited the debate as to whether a subsidy would make a more lasting return.
Tinubu’s main rivals say they plan to restore some form of consumer support if elected and have accused the president of panicking in the face of pressure to account for his decision, with polls opening in less than 100 days. SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based advisory firm, found in a survey published in September that more than two-thirds of voters want the government to reinstate a fuel subsidy of some kind. Insecurity, which has worsened around the country, is also set to figure as a major point of contention.
The revived subsidy debate is shaping just about every conversation concerning the coming vote in Africa’s biggest democracy. Tinubu and his 17 challengers are hitting the campaign trail to sway voters whose collective purchasing power has weakened sharply in the last three years, in large part due to the five-fold rise in fuel prices in that period which has driven inflation and spawned a cost-of-living crisis. Its resurgence reflects Nigeria’s history as the continent’s top oil producer and exporter that has consistently failed to convert its energy riches into broad-based prosperity.
For years, the vast majority of the crude oil produced in the country was exported because none of the government’s domestic refineries were fully functional. Imported refined products were then subsidized by payments from the state-oil company NNPC, enabling a multibillion-dollar largesse that grew into an increasingly opaque and corrupt scheme, according to government fact-finders and international observers. It was also costly: The program’s $10 billion in 2022 exceeded the combined budget for healthcare and education.
Tinubu has largely not faced widespread protests or strong political opposition since ending the subsidy. He has told Nigerians that his policy approach is shifting from offering “emergency treatment” — ostensibly to fix the faulty foundations of the economy he inherited — to enabling shared prosperity.
But in Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, he faces familiar challengers who are eager to make the coming election a referendum on the impact of energy costs. “Bola made life expensive. I will work to make life affordable again,” Atiku said in a campaign video last week. Obi, the other heavyweight in the race, pledged to judge his leadership by metrics that would show Nigerians “eating better, living better, and escaping poverty.”
The sharp rise in energy costs that followed Tinubu’s subsidy removal led several businesses to shutter or reconsider operations in Nigeria. But while many questioned the absence of safety net measures to cushion the impact of Tinubu’s so-called shock therapy, the International Monetary Fund praised the subsidy removal, as did several economists. An IMF official last week cautioned Nigeria to avoid the temptation of reinstating a subsidy for political reasons.
The Dangote refinery in Lagos, which started supplying fuel in Nigeria two years ago, provides about 70% of Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs. But the country still imports refined fuels. Both Dangote — which buys more than a third of its crude from international suppliers — and fuel importers are vulnerable to global oil price shocks.
The potential for further escalation in the Iran war, underscored by recent Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, raises the question of how long Nigeria is prepared to extend the price cap that is initially planned to be in place for 30-days. “I think it’s highly likely that this gets extended, at least through the elections into Q1,” said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at SBM.
BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Group, expects the price cap to amount to up to 0.4% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product by the second quarter of next year.
Nigeria’s subsidy debates are divisive because the program — once seen by many Nigerians as the only benefit they got from the state — has swallowed historically mammoth sums and is inextricably associated with corruption and state capture by a cabal of favored oil traders.
Many analysts say Nigeria’s fuel subsidy burdened public finances and encouraged adverse behaviors like fuel smuggling. Together with changes that allowed the naira currency to float freely by market forces, Tinubu’s subsidy removal helped to improve Nigeria’s fiscal stability and strengthen reserves.
But trialling a short-term fuel price cap points to a government reckoning with the pain it has inflicted. “The removal of the fuel subsidy has been economically necessary, but socially painful,” Jervin Nadioo, an analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told me. He believes Tinubu is “well positioned to secure re-election” but growing public frustration over living costs suggests that an improved economic picture has not translated into sufficient relief for households.
Stop-gaps and sweeteners may sway some voters towards Tinubu in January. But it is more likely that the difficulties of the last three years have already hardened views about the candidates.
The battle for political advantage ahead of elections should not obscure a reasonable expectation that governments can intervene to soften the pain of citizens, said Vahyala Kwaga, country head for Nigeria at policy research group BudgIT.
“Anything that can alleviate the hardship that the masses suffered from the day it was announced that the subsidy is gone is certainly welcome,” Kwaga said. Ultimately, though, his concern is with transparency and accountability: “Who is going to be held responsible if the subsidy doesn’t work?”
By Alexander Onukwue, SEMAFOR
Thursday, October 15, 2026
Video - Nigeria’s CNG transition faces long queues and refueling challenges
Nigeria is promoting compressed natural gas as a cheaper alternative to petrol amid rising fuel prices. However, long queues and limited refueling stations in Abuja are leaving motorists frustrated and reducing drivers’ earnings.
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