Friday, December 20, 2024

President Tinubu unveils “ambitious” budget

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu presented a 47.9 trillion naira ($30 billion) budget for 2025 to parliament on Wednesday.

The bill, Tinubu’s second as president, assumes a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel and production of just over 2 million barrels per day — an output level some analysts say would be hard to achieve. Nigerian budgets are anchored on oil sales which make up around 90% of foreign exchange earnings.

The budget also assumes inflation will fall from over 34% currently to 15% next year. It is an “optimistic forecast,” says Ibukun Omoyeni, an economist at Lagos-based Vetiva Capital. He believes inflation “may be much higher” than the government’s estimate and that a supplementary budget would need to be issued at some point.

Tinubu, who has largely stuck by a policy agenda that has sharply raised the cost of living during his tenure, said the latest budget was “ambitious but necessary” for the country’s future. Defense and security will take 10% of the proposed spending, while education and health account for 7 and 5% respectively.

The proposal projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow 4.6% next year, above recent estimates from Washington.

According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economy will grow next year by 3.2% after finishing this year with 2.9%. The World Bank’s growth projection for Nigeria for the next three years is an average of 3.7%.

Earlier this month, Nigeria issued a $2.2 billion eurobond partly to raise money needed to make up for this budget’s 3.9% deficit. Central Bank governor Yemi Cardoso described the bond sale as a measure of “growing confidence of investors and the resilience of the Nigeria credit, and evidence of our improved liquidity position.”

The bank under Tinubu’s direction has managed to stabilize the naira currency after a free fall at the beginning of the year following two devaluations. Next year’s budget is anchored on an exchange rate of 1,500 naira to the dollar, an estimate that isn’t far off the naira’s current position of 1,538.

But even if the exchange rate projection is feasible, Tinubu’s spending plan is “not realistic at all” based on its projections for inflation and oil revenues, says Basil Abia, co-founder of economic policy consultancy Veriv Africa. The firm’s best-case scenario projection for inflation next year is 31% — and that is if Nigeria produces at least 1.8 million barrels per day at $90 or more. But Nigeria’s output has been below that mark in the last half decade with insecurity in oil producing communities limiting production.

And Nigeria’s oil earnings next year could be affected by geopolitical factors beyond its control. “A Trump presidency means more American oil in the global market,” raising the prospect of prices going below $70, Abia said.

By Alexander Onukwue, SEMAFOR

Thursday, December 19, 2024

A plan to win the war against oil theft in Nigeria

At dawn, the dense creeks and swamps of the Niger Delta are enveloped in an eerie silence, which is interrupted only by the intermittent chirping of Herons, a rare water bird found in this part of Nigeria.

Suddenly, in a flash, the water bubbles and convulses, announcing the galloping approach of speedboats.

The boats usually carry heavily armed militiamen, often clad in work overalls, suggesting they are technicians, said Tonye Francis, who lives in the oil-producing Ogu-Bolo community in Rivers State that’s been in the shadow of an oil conflict for years.

Also in the boats are several dozen empty mini-drums with hoses attached to the bases, that get connected to a nearby oil pipeline after it has been professionally ruptured, the young man told Al Jazeera.

In no time, the mini-drums get filled with crude oil and loaded into barges. The barges, escorted by speedboats, then make their way out of the inlet – crisscrossing other dense creeks and swamps that dot the area – heading in the direction of a waiting foreign vessel, nautical miles away.

“It feels like a movie scene when these activities are going on,” Francis said.

“They [the oil thieves] operate unhindered. Sometimes, those involved are given security cover by their sponsors.”

For years, incidents like this one have become common in Rivers State, which prides itself as Nigeria’s oil capital. But the scene is also a recurring one across the Niger Delta as thieves try to siphon crude from oil pipelines crisscrossing the region.

“We can’t stop them without the support of the military men deployed to the area,” Francis said.

Nigeria is one of Africa’s leading oil exporters. But the industrial-scale oil theft has posed a major threat to communities and the wider economy. Oil theft costs Nigeria millions of dollars each month; about $23bn in oil revenue was lost in 2022 – one of the highest in recent years.

This forced Nigeria to slip as the continent’s largest exporter, according to figures from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

But it appears to be bouncing back and authorities hope improved security measures to help tackle criminals will let them win the war against oil theft for good.

‘Oil theft is a big problem’

Rivers is one of the six states hosting oil installations in the country.

As part of a plan to boost the region’s oil production, authorities in the state last week unveiled a batch of military-grade gunboats to help crack down on criminality and oil theft.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, State Governor Siminalayi Fubara explained that “oil theft is a big problem that needs all hands on deck to tackle it.”

“These six gunboats donated by my government are meant to support the Nigerian Navy to ensure we drastically reduce the activities of oil thieves,” he said.

The gunboats will enhance waterway patrols and response times, especially near submerged oil export pipelines that are prone to attacks, officials said.

“We have set up local vigilantes to support the protection of oil facilities, acquired gunboats, and [are] protecting the ecosystem of the region,” Fubara added.

Rivers is home to pipelines that transport crude from other states to its Bonny export terminal, accounting for 6.5 percent of Nigeria’s entire revenue.

But for decades, theft has impacted negatively on the overall revenue of a country where about 90 percent of government earnings are generated from oil.

Thousands of oil spill incidents have occurred since oil was discovered in commercial quantities in Nigeria in 1958 – due to the activities of oil thieves. The dip in production often has adverse effects on government revenue.

This has continued to affect the people of the communities in these oil-rich areas. Those who depend on farming and fishing have felt a direct effect on their livelihoods and residents have reported numerous health issues.

To provide alternative opportunities for young people, Rivers State government plans to invest more in health, education and infrastructure in areas at risk of pipeline vandalism.

“We are doing our best to discourage any form of economic sabotage,” Fubara told Al Jazeera, “which is why the country’s output has increased in recent months given our support and protection of pipelines.”

‘Recent gains can be sustained’

Oil export is Nigeria’s mainstay as crude production and now averages 1.8 million barrels per day compared with 1.3 million (bpd) in March, though the country has the capability to export close to 2 million bpd.

The group chief executive officer of the state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Company, Mele Kyari, has attributed the increased production to improved security measures and the support of joint venture partners.

“We have reached a new peak in production that we haven’t seen in the last three years. This is related to the sustained efforts by the armed forces and other security agencies to protect our critical assets,” Kyari said in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.

“I call for enhanced and sustained security engagement.”

Industry experts are optimistic the country’s oil output will peak in a few months if the measures in place are sustained.

“There’s every need to ramp up crude oil production above the current success numbers to help Nigeria defend a fast-falling naira and tackle the insufficient forex supply that has hit the exchange market so hard as the ripple-effect is felt on raising the cost of goods and services as citizens battles to curb the hard realities,” economist Steve Nwachukwu of Steward Asset Management told Al Jazeera.

Nigeria has been struggling with soaring inflation and a sharply devalued currency since President Bola Tinubu introduced reforms more than a year ago aimed at reviving the economy.

Recently, labour leaders and civil society led antigovernment demonstrations to voice discontent over government reforms they say have triggered high inflation.

The country’s inflation rate rose to 34.60 percent in November due largely to soaring food prices and an increase in the pump price of petroleum products, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The federal government has maintained that this phase of the economic crisis is temporary and expects the increase in oil production to boost revenue.

“The recent gains can be sustained if deliberate actions are taken to curb oil theft and encourage IOC’s [international oil companies] and others to increase their investment and commitment,” Nwachukwu said.

‘A total reorientation’

For the governor of Rivers State, more effort is needed to discourage oil thieves.

“We are committed to the government’s remediation of the polluted environment. That is why we are increasing support to other economic sectors like agriculture to tackle poverty which is one of the major reasons the people break pipelines to steal oil,” Fubara said.

“What we need is a total reorientation of the people to discourage them from stealing oil. It’s a bad situation because you have children as young as 14 and 15 involved,” he added.

Pollution from the activities of oil thieves continues to endanger the lives of the 30 million residents of the Delta. Between 2011 and 2021, there were 9,870 spill incidents, according to data from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA).

These spills are mostly caused by oil thieves and most communities can no longer engage in agriculture as their livelihoods have been destroyed.

In the early 2000s, Niger Deltan youths, aggrieved by the economic marginalisation and environmental degradation of the region, banded together into armed groups, destroyed oil pipelines, and abducted oil companies’ employees. These attacks reduced oil production significantly, costing Nigeria a fifth of its production.

A presidential amnesty was granted with unconditional pardons and gave cash payments to rebels who agreed to turn in their arms.

In recent years, armed struggle in the Delta has been assuaged partly because of surveillance deals granted to some former rebel leaders after the amnesty deal.

Nigeria’s oil minister, Heineken Lokpobiri, admitted the war against oil theft was a tough fight, but insisted the country was winning.

“Everybody knows that oil theft is one of the biggest economic problems that we have. And we are battling them,” Lokpobiri told journalists in Abuja.

“We are not where we want to be. But certainly, it’s a tremendous improvement as far as the issue of oil theft is concerned. We will continue to battle until we get to 2 million, 2.5 million barrels,” according to the minister.

In 2022, Nigeria lost its top spot among oil-producing African countries and fell behind Angola, Algeria, and Libya. But it bounced back this year, retaining its spot as the continent’s leading exporter, according to OPEC figures released in April.

“[This] will greatly relieve the naira and stabilise the exchange market, which will in turn significantly reduce the cost of goods and services as the high exchange rate is the major contributing factor to high input cost for businesses and manufacturers,” economist Nwachukwu said.

By Fidelis Mbah, Al Jazeera

More than 2 million kidnapped in Nigeria in one year

Security officials in Nigeria are raising concerns after a National Bureau of Statistics survey revealed that more than 2 million people were kidnapped in the West African nation between May 2023 and April 2024, and that Nigerians paid a cumulative $1.42 billion to kidnappers within the same period.

The NBS released its Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey 2024 on Tuesday. The report said some 600,000 Nigerians were killed and 2.2 million others abducted across the country between May 2023 and April 2024.

Armed gangs, known locally as bandits, were mostly responsible for the escalation of violence in northwest and north central Nigeria, while terror-related violence was reported in the northeast region of Nigeria.

The report said 91% of the kidnappings were attributed to ransom demands, while other cases were due to political, criminal or terrorist motives. It also said Nigerians spent $1.4 billion cumulatively to free their loved ones from kidnappers at an average of $1,700 per incident.

Security analyst Senator Iroegbu said the report is no surprise.

"The figure is not surprising. The only difference is that the media focus has shifted, and that's what makes it look as if it [insecurity] has reduced,” Iroegbu said. “So, this report has brought back to light what is going on."

According to the NBS report, 82.1% of the kidnapped victims were released, 12.8% were killed, 3.3% remained in captivity and the outcome of about 1.3% of victims was unknown.

The report comes amid growing security concerns in Africa's most populous nation already struggling to curb a range of insecurities that have stretched the security forces thin.

It also revealed that nearly seven out of 10 households in Nigeria reported murder cases to the police within the same period.

Security analyst Saheed Shehu said the trend is worrying.

"These figures should serve as a yardstick as a baseline for the president and commander-in-chief to hold his military, police, accountable,” Shehu said. “The figures should serve as a tool to hold the leaders of the security agencies accountable. We should not just be reading figures and then wait for the end of 2025 to release another figure."

In November, Nigeria announced the discovery of a new terror group known as Lakurawa but said security forces were already on their trail.

Two weeks ago, Nigerian defense authorities said the military killed a total of 8,000 terrorists and apprehended over 11,000 suspects and rescued over 6,000 victims between January and December.

But Shehu is skeptical.

"This report coming from the National Bureau of Statistics — to be honest, it makes me to be at a quandary whether the reports we're getting from security agencies of successes ... it does not balance with this report,” Shehu said. “So, something must be wrong somewhere."

Improving security is a major challenge for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's government as it desperately seeks to attract foreign investments to grow the country's struggling economy.

Nigeria allocated about $4 billion, or 12% of this year's budget, to defense and security — the largest single allocation to any sector.

By Timothy Obiezu, VOA

Stampede at youth festival in Nigeria causes ‘multiple’ deaths

A stampede at a religious festival in Nigeria attended by thousands of young people has resulted in several deaths, local officials say.

The incident occurred on Wednesday at an Islamic high school in Ibadan, the capital of Nigeria’s southwest Oyo State, where up to 5,000 young people and children had reportedly gathered for the event.State Governor Seyi Makinde said in a statement on X that the disaster had caused “multiple loss of lives and injuries” and that security forces had been deployed to get the situation under control and evacuate attendees from the site.

Video footage that appeared to be from the scene showed a large crowd of mostly children looking on as some were carried off the site to local hospitals, according to news agency The Associated Press.

“This is a very sad day,” Makinde said. “We sympathise with the parents whose joy has suddenly been turned to mourning due to these deaths.”

“While investigations are ongoing, the primary organisers of the event that led to this stampede have been taken into custody,” he said.

He promised that “anyone directly or remotely involved in this disaster” would be held accountable.

Local media identified the event organisers as the Women In Need Of Guidance and Support Foundation, which held a similar festival last year.

The group was preparing to host up to 5,000 young people at this year’s event, according to the Oyo-based Agidigbo FM radio station.

The festival organisers had promised participants would “win exciting prizes like scholarships and other bountiful gifts”.

Nigeria’s national emergency services said a team had been deployed to provide assistance to the victims.

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

The Booming Creator Economy in Nigeria

Young talent managers are stepping up to professionalize the fast-growing content creator market that is coming to millions of mobile phone screens across Nigeria and the rest of Africa.

Some of the top talent already earn six-figure dollar sums with everything from comedy skits to travelogues and cooking shows. Most of that is earned through partnerships with brands trying to reach consumers who are glued to clips on Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok.

Olufemi Oguntamu, CEO of Penzaarville Africa, a Lagos-based talent management agency, said good creators such as his clients can bring in more than 8 million naira ($5,000) per video on average. But with higher production values they can easily bring in more than twice that. Penzaarville manages talent including travel vlogger Tayo Aina, who has 1 million YouTube subscribers, and comedian Broda Shaggi, who has over 12 million on Instagram.

Now content creators are leveraging their social media stardom to transition into Nollywood and television under the guidance of their managers. Taiwo Adeyemi, Founder of Boxx Culture, a talent management agency, said that film producers often approach his clients, not just because of their talent but also their ready-made audiences which run into the millions in some cases. “Nollywood producers are constantly trying to cast people who are content creators to boost the reach of their films,” said Adeyemi, whose clients include Ariyike Dimples and Koye.

While there’s plenty of glitz and excitement around being a creator in Lagos and the mini-fame that comes with having tens of thousands of followers and fans, not everyone is guaranteed to make a living. That’s where the talent managers come in.

In a fledgling creator market, where even Nollywood movie stars have not always been professionally represented, talent managers for online creators are playing a vital role in laying the groundwork for opportunities with major brands and other partners. Unlike in more developed entertainment markets, talent management here encompasses not just career guidance but also agency representation, as well as media affairs, and much more.

The potential is significant in a market which is overwhelmingly young and locked in to their mobile phones. The Africa creator economy is projected to hit a value of nearly $18 billion by 2030, according to Coherent Market Insights, though that total estimate includes other third party enablers, such as fintech companies.

Behind every great video lies a major investment of time, effort, and money spent on hiring recording gear and technical assistance, from editors and production managers to makeup artists. So managers are increasingly important to help the creators manage their costs as they gamble with higher production figures to attract more viewers. But their primary role is bringing in more lucrative brand partnerships.

Oladapo Adewunmi, founder of Lagos-based content and talent agency Apollo Endeavor, says managing partnerships with distribution platforms like Instagram and YouTube is relentless work given the 24-7 nature of social media and the internet. “We are constantly looking out and pushing for more opportunities for the creators and their content to be optimized to generate revenue,” says Adewunmi, whose clients include Josh2Funny and Brainjotter,

The money might be good but it’s important to note that not all brands will work with every creator, and that goes both ways. Oguntamu says he looks out for credibility and alignment of values between the brand and his client. “The brands have to be credible. Regardless of whatever amount you want to pay, I need to be sure that it’s not a brand that will create problems for my clients,”he said.

That confidence is driven by a certainty that the move to self-made creators is just beginning to take hold in the market. “The creator economy is just starting, creators are becoming the new thought leaders and shaping the minds of people,” stated Adewunmi.

By Torinmo Salau, SEMAFOR